Black Swaned
If you were wondering what Black Swan is, In the words of Nassim Nicholas Taleb (the person who coined it), it is a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. Taleb regards many scientific discoveries as black swans—"undirected" and unpredicted.
The term black swan comes from the ancient Western conception that all swans were white. In that context, a black swan was a metaphor for something that could not exist. The 17th Century discovery of black swans in Australia metamorphosed the term to connote that the perceived impossibility actually came to pass.
Today, as i was travelling in the auto, as i crossed the first leg of my travel, I witnessed a minor accident, a small girl and her father skid and bruised themselves. I was thinking to myself, may be there is a factor a safety with me, the two wheelers are more vulnerable to accidents than auto, more over I am not driving the auto, my mood doesn't reflect in the driving (ofcourse, the auto drivers' does!).I was gratifying my decision for not owning a vehicle as of now, for i dont have any dying needs, neither do i have a girl friend nor do i traverse large distances.Most important of all, i am not locked to the burden of EMI.
I was already in the second leg, Chennai was suddenly showering, the traffic had mellowed down, the two wheelers were scratching for the non-existent trees.The vehicles on the roads were splashing trails of acid water on each other.Some people were zipping around plugged to their new identity " mobile phones". Disssssshhhhhhhhh.. traaaaaaauuuuuukkkkkkkkk .... Oooooooopsssssss .. quacccccck quacccccccck......I was getting up from a tumbled auto, people around me asking " are you ok?" .My auto driver tried to turn the auto to avert an accident with a two-wheeler who had skit when he tried to take a U-turn!.Infact i did not panic, I got up with a smile, I was not hurt to any extent, the only thing which took a hit was my pant with renewed dirt.
It was perhaps a Black Swan to me, for I didn't expect this to me,Perhaphs it was a normal event to the traffic police who picked me up, as i lay on the road.Rarity of a event is just a field of experience.I learnt it the hard way in my recent venture in stock trading, I though that my stock would not fall by 50% in a month hearing to veteran traders who would tell their own stories.After my first investment in a stock, I now have a story to tell to a naive investor but they would not take it seriously.There are always hardways to learn!
if you were thinking that something was impossible.....
Sara if there was couple of accidents at the same spot then we cud have a fooled by randomness theory generated !!
Moreover we can try out Monte Carlo simulation to check how well the driver performs in a situation similar to the one that u faced.
Given a chance will you travel in the same auto?? Same driver!!
Posted by
Pramod Abraham |
1:43 am
So mudivaa enna solla varra? Kuppuradichu keezha vizhunthaalum pantla thaan mann ottuchu meesaila mann ottala nu solreengala sir? ;)
Posted by
Unknown |
4:41 am
@Pramod
I am staggered by your level of inquistiveness to experiment my life with an accident. I have lots more to accomplish,fumble,mumble and treble and many more thoughts to be killed. I will survive!
I'll tell yo a easy way out.. why dont you give a try creating an accident, that is more consensus with reflexivity suggested by George Soros!. You speculate your life,what better way to learn?
@ Sk,
Youv.. naan enna sollava varenna enna vendumanalum nadakkalaam.. athanalla.. enna pannumnu ninaikiringhaloo atha ippovae pannidunghanu..Don't stop with thinking.. there is something called acting and doing !
Posted by
Sara |
6:23 am